Quantifying Arctic contributions to climate predictability in a regional coupled ocean-ice-atmosphere model

The relative importance of regional processes inside the Arctic climate system and the large scale atmospheric circulation for Arctic interannual climate variability has been estimated with the help of a regional Arctic coupled ocean-ice-atmosphere model. The study focuses on sea ice and surface climate during the 1980s and 1990s. Simulations agree reasonably well with observations. Correlations between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index and the summer Arctic sea ice thickness and summer sea ice extent are found. Spread of sea ice extent within an ensemble of model runs can be associated with a surface pressure gradient between the Nordic Seas and the Kara Sea. Trends in the sea ice thickness field are widely significant and can formally be attributed to large scale forcing outside the Arctic model domain. Concerning predictability, results indicate that the variability generated by the external forcing is more important in most regions than the internally generated variability. However, both are in the same order of magnitude. Local areas such as the Northern Greenland coast together with Fram Straits and parts of the Greenland Sea show a strong importance of internally generated variability, which is associated with wind direction variability due to interaction with atmospheric dynamics on the Greenland ice sheet. High predictability of sea ice extent is supported by north-easterly winds from the Arctic Ocean to Scandinavia

Impacts of boundary layer turbulence and land surface process parameterizations on simulated sea breeze characteristics

This paper investigates the sensitivity of sea breeze (SB) simulations to combinations of boundary-layer turbulence and land-surface process parameterizations implemented in the MM5 mesoscale meteorological mode for an observed SB case over the Swedish west coast. Various combinations from four different planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes [Blackadar, Gayno-Seaman (GS), Eta, MRF], and two land surface model (LSM) schemes (SLAB, Noah) with different complexity are designed to simulate a typical SB case over the Swedish west coast. The simulations are conducted using two-way interactively nested grids. Simulated 10-m winds are compared against observed near-surface wind data from the GÖTE2001 campaign to examine the diurnal cycle of wind direction and speed for SB timing. The SB (vertical) circulation is also compared in the different experiments. The results show that the different combinations of PBL and LSM parameterization schemes result in different SB timing and vertical circulation characteristics. All experiments predict a delayed SB. The vertical component of the SB circulation varies in the experiments, among which the GS PBL scheme produces the strongest SB circulation. Evident differences between the SLAB and Noah LSMs are also found, especially in maximum of updraft and downdraft velocities of the SB vertical circulation. The results have significant implications for convective initiation, air quality studies and other environmental problems in coastal areas

On the increased climate sensitivity in the EC-Earth model from CMIP5 to CMIP6

Many modelling groups that contribute to CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) have found a larger equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) with their latest model versions compared with the values obtained with the earlier versions used in CMIP5. This is also the case for the EC-Earth model. Therefore, in this study, we investigate what developments since the CMIP5 era could have caused the increase in the ECS in this model. Apart from increases in the horizontal and vertical resolution, the EC-Earth model has also substantially changed the representation of aerosols; in particular, it has introduced a more sophisticated description of aerosol indirect effects. After testing the model with some of the recent updates switched off, we find that the ECS increase can be attributed to the more advanced treatment of aerosols, with the largest contribution coming from the effect of aerosols on cloud microphysics (cloud lifetime or second indirect effect). The increase in climate sensitivity is unrelated to model tuning, as all experiments were performed with the same tuning parameters and only the representation of the aerosol effects was changed. These results cannot be generalised to other models, as their CMIP5 and CMIP6 versions may differ with respect to aspects other than the aerosol-cloud interaction, but the results highlight the strong sensitivity of ECS to the details of the aerosol forcing

First cohomology for finite groups of Lie type: simple modules with small dominant weights

Let $k$ be an algebraically closed field of characteristic $p > 0$, and let $G$ be a simple, simply connected algebraic group defined over $\mathbb{F}_p$. Given $r \geq 1$, set $q=p^r$, and let $G(\mathbb{F}_q)$ be the corresponding finite Chevalley group. In this paper we investigate the structure of the first cohomology group $H^1(G(\mathbb{F}_q),L(\lambda))$ where $L(\lambda)$ is the simple $G$-module of highest weight $\lambda$. Under certain very mild conditions on $p$ and $q$, we are able to completely describe the first cohomology group when $\lambda$ is less than or equal to a fundamental dominant weight. In particular, in the cases we consider, we show that the first cohomology group has dimension at most one. Our calculations significantly extend, and provide new proofs for, earlier results of Cline, Parshall, Scott, and Jones, who considered the special case when $\lambda$ is a minimal nonzero dominant weight.Comment: 24 pages, 5 figures, 6 tables. Typos corrected and some proofs streamlined over previous versio

Second cohomology for finite groups of Lie type

Let $G$ be a simple, simply-connected algebraic group defined over $\mathbb{F}_p$. Given a power $q = p^r$ of $p$, let $G(\mathbb{F}_q) \subset G$ be the subgroup of $\mathbb{F}_q$-rational points. Let $L(\lambda)$ be the simple rational $G$-module of highest weight $\lambda$. In this paper we establish sufficient criteria for the restriction map in second cohomology $H^2(G,L(\lambda)) \rightarrow H^2(G(\mathbb{F}_q),L(\lambda))$ to be an isomorphism. In particular, the restriction map is an isomorphism under very mild conditions on $p$ and $q$ provided $\lambda$ is less than or equal to a fundamental dominant weight. Even when the restriction map is not an isomorphism, we are often able to describe $H^2(G(\mathbb{F}_q),L(\lambda))$ in terms of rational cohomology for $G$. We apply our techniques to compute $H^2(G(\mathbb{F}_q),L(\lambda))$ in a wide range of cases, and obtain new examples of nonzero second cohomology for finite groups of Lie type.Comment: 29 pages, GAP code included as an ancillary file. Rewritten to include the adjoint representation in types An, B2, and Cn. Corrections made to Theorem 3.1.3 and subsequent dependent results in Sections 3-4. Additional minor corrections and improvements also implemente

Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model

This is the final version. Available on open access from the Royal Society via the DOI in this recordData accessibility: This article has no additional data.We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme projections suggesting more than a doubling of flows in the Ganges at 2°C global warming. Some areas are projected to experience shorter meteorological drought events and less severe low flows, although longer droughts and/or decreases in low flows are projected in many other areas, particularly southern Africa and South America. Flows in the Amazon are projected to decline by up to 25%. Increases in either heavy rainfall or drought events imply increased vulnerability to food insecurity, but if global warming is limited to 1.5°C, this vulnerability is projected to remain smaller than at 2°C global warming in approximately 76% of developing countries. At 2°C, four countries are projected to reach unprecedented levels of vulnerability to food insecurity. This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.European Union FP7Joint UK BEIS/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programm

EC-Earth3-AerChem: A global climate model with interactive aerosols and atmospheric chemistry participating in CMIP6

This paper documents the global climate model EC-Earth3-AerChem, one of the members of the EC-Earth3 family of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). EC-Earth3-AerChem has interactive aerosols and atmospheric chemistry and contributes to the Aerosols and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). In this paper, we give an overview of the model, describe in detail how it differs from the other EC-Earth3 configurations, and outline the new features compared with the previously documented version of the model (EC-Earth 2.4). We explain how the model was tuned and spun up under preindustrial conditions and characterize the model's general performance on the basis of a selection of coupled simulations conducted for CMIP6. The net energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere in the preindustrial control simulation is on average -0.09 W m-2 with a standard deviation due to interannual variability of 0.25 W m-2, showing no significant drift. The global surface air temperature in the simulation is on average 14.08 ∼ C with an interannual standard deviation of 0.17 ∼ C, exhibiting a small drift of 0.015 ± 0.005 ∼ C per century. The model's effective equilibrium climate sensitivity is estimated at 3.9 ∼ C, and its transient climate response is estimated at 2.1 ∼ C. The CMIP6 historical simulation displays spurious interdecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere temperatures, resulting in a large spread across ensemble members and a tendency to underestimate observed annual surface temperature anomalies from the early 20th century onwards. The observed warming of the Southern Hemisphere is well reproduced by the model. Compared with the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5), the surface air temperature climatology for 1995-2014 has an average bias of -0.86 ± 0.05 ∼ C with a standard deviation across ensemble members of 0.35 ∼ C in the Northern Hemisphere and 1.29 ± 0.02 ∼ C with a corresponding standard deviation of 0.05 ∼ C in the Southern Hemisphere. The Southern Hemisphere warm bias is largely caused by errors in shortwave cloud radiative effects over the Southern Ocean, a deficiency of many climate models. Changes in the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) have significant effects on the global climate from the second half of the 20th century onwards. For the SSP3-7.0 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway, the model gives a global warming at the end of the 21st century (2091-2100) of 4.9 ∼ C above the preindustrial mean. A 0.5 ∼ C stronger warming is obtained for the AerChemMIP scenario with reduced emissions of NTCFs. With concurrent reductions of future methane concentrations, the warming is projected to be reduced by 0.5 ∼ C

HighResMIP versions of EC-Earth: EC-Earth3P and EC-Earth3P-HR - Description, model computational performance and basic validation

A new global high-resolution coupled climate model, EC-Earth3P-HR has been developed by the EC-Earth consortium, with a resolution of approximately 40 km for the atmosphere and 0.25° for the ocean, alongside with a standard-resolution version of the model, EC-Earth3P (80 km atmosphere, 1.0 ° ocean). The model forcing and simulations follow the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) protocol. According to this protocol, all simulations are made with both high and standard resolutions. The model has been optimized with respect to scalability, performance, data storage and post-processing. In accordance with the HighResMIP protocol, no specific tuning for the high-resolution version has been applied. Increasing horizontal resolution does not result in a general reduction of biases and overall improvement of the variability, and deteriorating impacts can be detected for specific regions and phenomena such as some Euro-Atlantic weather regimes, whereas others such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation show a clear improvement in their spatial structure. The omission of specific tuning might be responsible for this. The shortness of the spin-up, as prescribed by the HighResMIP protocol, prevented the model from reaching equilibrium. The trend in the control and historical simulations, however, appeared to be similar, resulting in a warming trend, obtained by subtracting the control from the historical simulation, close to the observational one